Photo: 21st century economic report
On November 28, President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of financial strategy in 21st century Gao Peiyong Finance Forum "up the power of growth: financial innovation theory of relativity" delivered the main speech. Electric vehicles to the fire Ministry of housing
Gao Peiyong, said: "in the next few years, complete construction of a well-off society is a goal of no room to maneuver. The established goals, including the one goal is that by 2020 with quantity constraints GDP and rural and urban per capita income doubled. "He predicted that in 2010, China's GDP of $ 41 trillion in, meant that by 2020 total GDP reached 82 trillion.
The following is Gao Peiyong speeches:
Distinguished leaders, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning!
First of all, please allow me, on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of financial strategies, and on my own behalf on the 21st century economy by warm congratulations on the establishment of the Institute. Also honored was invited to be the Honorary President of the Institute for 21st century. I'd like to shortly in the plenary session of the just-concluded CPC 18 v today, form a 21st century Research Institute has unusual significance, such an unusual interpretation of meaning in many ways, 21st century Research Institute, there are various types of economic think-tanks or other, today we will face a very different research environment in the past, at least in the "Thirteen-Five" is.
We have noted that the plenary session communique issued as an opportunity to China will usher in a forced expansion of macroeconomic policy with completely different effects of a large background. As long as attention to the decision of the plenary session was to complete construction of a well-off society for the sake of such a resolution, we know that in the next few years, complete construction of a well-off society is a non-completion is not available, there is no leeway for an established goal. Objectives include the aspects of this established, one of the most important, goal with quantity constraints, until 2020 to GDP and rural and urban per capita income doubled. In 2010 our $ 41 trillion in GDP, means that by 2020 the total value of our GDP reaching 82 trillion. 2010 urban resident income of 19000, that by 2020 we will achieve 38000 Yuan of per capita income of urban residents. Rural residents in 2010 revenues 5900 Yuan, means that in 2020 we will 11800 Yuan in per capita income of rural residents in achieving a goal. If we target such as "Heaven", that we need to finish, you must touch, must practice the goal.
Again see "to", to is we current of economic development new normal, can from multiple angle to do description, but which it of a basic features one of is relative Yu past we of economic growth is next moved process among, economic of growth slowed and established target of achieved equivalent we in world Zhijian macroeconomic policy to frame up a connection both of channel and bridge, how achieved which of target, and how based economic development new normal such a reality. I think this bridge is particularly needs to be realized through the expansionary effects of macroeconomic policy. In other words, we already face a forced expansion of macroeconomic policies and macroeconomic policy environment are different from in the past.
Further, the expansionary effects may not be annual in nature, is likely to be cyclical because the whole "Thirteen-Five" our goal is a continuing process of progressive approximation of moderately well-off society. This year's growth, if the GDP growth this year to reach 7%, to achieve the goals of 2020 total GDP reached 42 trillion, our average annual GDP growth rate must be 6.53%. If the GDP growth target this year of less than 7%, is 6.9%, then the next five years the average annual GDP growth of at least 6.53%, taking into account the current international economic situation, taking into account the current economic development of the new normal, a special background. We are likely to face a process of cyclical expansion in the coming years. We used to discuss how more of next year's economic policies, is expansionary or contractionary, do you want to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and stability of the policy topic, and so forth, but we may have to consider in the context of today's special is the future of macroeconomic policy is to enter the last five years, cyclical expansion phase. In other words, we want to research may not be the year of expansion, but for at least five years of expansion of macroeconomic policy.
Third, according to this theory, or looking forward to the next five-year macro-economic policy, and examine the pattern of current macro-economic policy, I would like to say there is a third important task was to thorough examination, assessing the current macroeconomic policy effect, or whether the net effect is that expansion is tightening, or neutral. Like the two of us macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy, they each have different fundamental objectives, policy effects there are different channels. But we have to ask is, when the effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy effect are spliced together, we calculate a overall macroeconomic policy composite effect of expansion or contraction and the net effect is, or be neutral when we have a lot of problems to do. If the total effect is not expansionary, the current macro-economic policy and economic development of the new normal docking between the two will need to be adjusted accordingly. If our current total effects of expansionary macroeconomic policies, should also be given to the expansion effect and we need expansionary effects, there is distance between if there is distance and how to make up for it. We might have to do a lot of things in these areas.
Further, monetary and fiscal policy can also separately to discuss, I do not speak of the effects of monetary policy, it said fiscal policy is expansionary, we had to settle a few scores. For example, when we talk about fiscal policy is expansionary, our focus is the budget or known as public budgets in General, as long as the general public budget deficit and the size of the deficit over the last year, we can conclude that this year's fiscal policy was expansionary. But if you jump out of the public budget deficit expanded to view the entire budget process, we will find that, in central banks ' balance sheets will see finance 3 trillion to 4 trillion of deposits, deposits and financial deficits are spliced together, whether we have on the general public budget of the expanded accounts carefully, this is the first step. Second step by general public budget across to whole government payments budget, we also know from this year up implementation has new of budget method, new budget method and old budget method maximum of difference, old budget method is refers specifically to general budget and public financial budget, new budget method not only including general public financial budget, and including Government sex of Fund payments budget, including social security fund budget, including State-owned capital business budget. Therefore, when we jump out of the public budget limitations, throughout the budget, we would also like to be accounts, even public budgets general budget in General, if you are know expansion also in the reckoning with is neutral or contractionary, we will consider a holistic perspective. Jump out of the Government budget and savings include administrative institutions, we can also present macroeconomic policy effect and the net effect is a step to do a more in-depth thinking. So what are the actual effects of macroeconomic policy, such a problem, we have a lot of needs to be cracked topic.
All macroeconomic policy we want for the next five years, complete the building of a well-off society and achievement of basic objectives, the layout of the macroeconomic policy, as well as its actual effect of play, more depends on the reform process. To achieve the 2020 goal of complete the building of a well-off society, rely on potential production, the potential of economic growth into real economic growth. Second on the dividends of reform, only the potential for economic growth, coupled with reform of the bonus can only be built to ensure that we fully realize this goal of a well-off society. Therefore, all the "Thirteen-Five" period just layouts of macroeconomic policy issues, not just the expansionary effects to the sustainability of macroeconomic policy issues, but also achieve the goal of comprehensive reform issues, in fact, only the goal of deepening the reform in accordance with the established timetable is in place will it be possible to built a well-off society so that we make sure to lay basis for such fundamental objectives to be achieved. Thank you very much!
Source: the 21st century business Herald
Original title: Gao Peiyong: 2020 GDP reaching 82 trillion
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