The morning of November 10, XI Jinping hosted the central financial and economic leading group of the 11th meeting. Xinhua News Agency about more than 1400-word press release, release of what significant signal? Monetary and fiscal policy, real estate, stock market, and positioning for the future.
1, the Central Finance and Economics leading group functions or adjusted
First meeting--a central finance and Economics leading group.
"The central financial and economic leading group meeting 8 months later returned to public view, functions or can be adjusted. "Minsheng securities Executive Director Guan Qingyou, Minsheng securities, senior macro Zhu Zhenxin, a researcher at the app," clear-Club "article analysis.
Central financial and economic leading group was established in 1980, beginning in 1987, the head of the post of General Secretary also. Central financial and economic leading group is to lead the economic work of the CPC of the rules of procedure of the treaty bodies, is the core of China's economic leadership and decision-making. Established under its Office, the Office of central financial work leading group, referred to as Central University of finance and economics, it is the core sector of China's economic policy makers.
In December 2014, zhongcai "build-up" had raised concerns. In the original Han Jun, Deputy Director of development research center of the State Council was transferred after the Deputy Director of the Office of the Central leading group on financial, former Deputy Director of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee Deputy Secretary-General of Shu Guozeng transferred zhongcai – zhongcai leadership scale thus reached its historic peak. At that time, public comment: "zhongcai, expansion is not only the expansion of and expansion of functions, extensive participation in macro-economic policy, economic reform, agriculture, finance and other aspects. This showed China's economic leadership from one side of changing quietly. "
Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin noted, since its February 10 Nineth meeting, zhongcai has led the group for nine months without an open message. By contrast, deepening reform leading group (referred to as deep restructuring) frequently meet up to ten times this year.
Taking into account the two leading teams are overlapping, does that mean that the marginalization of the role of zhongcai group? Wang Xinkui FTA to open forced reforms saying
"We understand this is not the case, but the functions of the Central leading group on financial adjustments, the next step may be more of a focus on pure economic work, other field work to higher member levels, a greater diversity of deep restructuring. "Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin writes," in economic work, zhongcai do play a role, far from weakening, but more and more. "
2, Chinese supply ideas clearer
Second meeting: "he delivered an important speech stressed that advancing the structural reform of the economy, is the implementation of the party's 18 plenary session one of the most important initiatives. "
What structural reforms? Xinhua explained, two rulers to measure economic well-being: one structure, one is the total amount. The former on behalf economic quality and efficiency, which reflect the economic number and size. Structural reforms, namely the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure through reform.
Also, XI further pointed out that, to firm set and implement implementation innovation, and coordination, and green, and open, and shared of development concept, adapted economic development new normal, insisted stability in the seeking into, insisted reform, implemented macroeconomic to stability, and industry policy to associate, and micro policy to live, and reform policy to real, and social policy to backing of policy, strategy Shang insisted protracted, tactical Shang playing good annihilation, in moderate expanded total needs of while, to strengthening supply side structural reform, to improve supply system quality and efficiency, Enhance sustained economic growth, promote the level of social productive forces in our country to achieve overall jump.
At this point, please note that "supply side structural reform" term.
On October 25, he said in an address at Tsinghua University, in view of the current economic situation, there are two types of analysis. One is the "troika" analysis, that China's economic growth is down because demand is weak; the other is from the supply side factors driving force of China's economic growth, concerned that new labour, new capital investment and improve efficiency.
Wu Jinglian seems based on supply side idea can come to the conclusion: China to maintain sustainable and stable growth in the future, the main driving forces are transforming the pattern of economic growth, from relying mainly on investment, relying mainly on resources, go to rely on technological progress, efficiency improved.
Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin believes that conversation can be seen from XI, Chinese supply ideas more clearly, that is a modest expansion of demand and supply side structural reform. "New a session led collective of economic management thought General experience has four a stage of groping: first stage 2012 to 2013 years in the, to expansion needs mainly (town of), second stage is from 2013 years in the to 2014 early, Central began in needs end take relative partial tight of attitude (money shortage + combat false trade + anti-corruption), to this pour forced supply end of structural reform. Third stage is from the beginning of 2014 by now, given the tight results are unsatisfactory, thoughts begin to make directional adjustments in the middle of, abandon the idea of tightening on the demand side (cut down + policy finance), the supply side while accelerating structural reforms. Of course, due to poor transmission mechanism of monetary and fiscal policy, real did not have the effect of demand expansion, but at least from a policy-oriented, the central authorities hope that reform of the balance between supply and demand expansion. "
3 hedge-oriented, demand-side policies more
During the meeting, XI Jinping stressed that macroeconomic policies to stability, is to stick to the proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, for the structural reform of the economy to create a stable macroeconomic environment.
In response, Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin believes that the weight increase of supply side reform, more demand-side policies to hedge.
From the view of monetary policy, "continued rate cuts drop is inevitable." They pointed to the need to focus on several trigger factors: "inflation, if sustained decline in CPI and PPI, or have cut interest rates to hedge real interest rates rose. Second, exchange rates, if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again triggered devaluation of the Renminbi, foreign exchange caused by the decline in base currency gap that will need to drop to hedge. Third is the inter-bank interest rate, real interest rates bad track, we can be pegged to the interbank interest rates, many factors may push interest rates higher, such as steady growth of financing needs (such as large-scale special debt), a hot stock market diversion of funds (IPO+ refinance + margin). "
In terms of fiscal policy, who thinks that the fiscal deficits are inevitable. "Subjective and objective factors of positive financial positive is the fact that fiscal deficit there is room to expand consensus, so the next fiscal deficit expansion is inevitable, recent Minister of Zhu's comments about the deficit may be a sign, ' expanding debt + structural tax reduction ' policy mix is worth looking forward to. "
On November 6, in the sixth on new financial Summit, Vice Minister of finance Zhu Guangyao said that deficit to reflection 3% red and 60% debt ratio of the red line is an absolute science standards. Some experts are also the same, think or have expanded deficit ratio or the red line can be adjusted.
4 core, short-term real estate is inventory
At the meeting, he mentioned for the first time this year in real estate: "to resolve the real estate inventory, promote sustainable development of the real estate industry. "For real estate development.
This year, real estate and limited purchase and cancellation, reduction, lower interest rates and other favorable policies, but three or four cities still face enormous market pressure on the stock.
70 cities, according to statistics released in September the country residential sales price movements, urban differentiation pattern is difficult to improve, new urban housing and second-hand house prices rose steadily the chain, second-tier cities from the post-holiday maintained small fluctuations, third-tier cities compared with decrease pattern.
Real estate stocks how to resolve?
Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin article points out to both: on the one hand to stimulate reasonable demand. "Real estate is expected to further loosen the credit and interest rate policy, particularly the role of housing accumulation Fund is expected to be strengthened, national housing bank or put on a timetable. "On the other hand allowing the market to determine supply. "The current sales continued to pick up, but real estate investment does not progress, prove that markets are voting with their feet. "In addition, or accelerating the shift from incremental construction of the affordable housing stock purchase, stock.
5, the stock market is the core system
When referring to the stock market, XI Jinping expressed as follows: "in order to prevent financial risks and develop finance functions, basic system solid and effective market regulation, investors full protection of the rights of the stock market. "
In fact, the last time he openly talked about the stock market, on the eve of this year's September visit to the United States. Its United States in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, at that time the stock market changes and a series of measures taken by the Government to make two points in response:
First, advances and declines in the stock market has its own laws, General Government does not intervene. The Government wants to protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small investors, prevent widespread panic.
Second, China's stock market fluctuations, to avoid systemic risk, measures taken by the Chinese Government. Mature markets abroad have taken similar approaches.
"After going through this crazy summer, central to market adjustments wanted level the higher the better, expand Finance steady growth, now may want to water level stability, prevent financial risks. "Guan Qingyou and Zhu Zhenxin believes that XI Jinping in 47 words specifically of the meeting stressed that the stock market, means that the Central Government will pay more attention to the capital market system construction, stock supply shortage and excess supply caused by the quake risk is expected to be broken. "The IPO has been reset, State-owned enterprises listed on the group as a whole and the registration system reform may have been on the road. "